Tango with Taysom

Written By: SimpleSlates

November 20, 2020

Never to Late

Taysom Hill entered the NFL at age 27 in 2017. He was an undrafted free agent who was picked up by the Packers, but released shortly after. The Packers did not feel the 27 year old rookie from BYU met the criteria to be a backup quarterback to Aaron Rodgers, but the Saints jumped on him and had other plans. Hill has been one of the most interesting players to watch in the league over the past few years due to what Sean Payton has allowed Hill to do. Hill has lined up on special teams, at running back, at wide receiver, at full back, at tight end, and even has taken some snaps at quarterback while future hall of famer Drew Brees lines up out wide to confuse the defense.  The crazy thing about Hill, is as versatile as he is, he has never actually started in an NFL game at a skill position. This weekend, against the Atlanta Falcons, the 30 year old gadget player will be making his first start of his NFL career at quarterback. 


Age Is Just a Number – So Are Pass Attempts


The chatter going around about Sean Payton’s decision to go with the 30 year old who has never started a single game in his career is well warranted. After the departure of Teddy Bridgewater, the Saints went out and signed the first overall pick of the 2015 NFL Draft Jameis Winston. What better opportunity for Winston to turn his career around than to get pointers from one of the most efficient quarterbacks of all time in Drew Brees. Winston is only 26, and although he is four years younger than Hill, he has five years worth of experience as a starting quarterback. We are all well aware of the gripes Winston has had throughout his career in regards to his ridiculous amount of turnovers he has been responsible for, but the experience is what it lingers down to. In 70 starts, Winston was able to rack up 28 wins – and 42 losses. That’s a horrible ratio, you don’t need a PhD in Rocket Science to acknowledge that, but in that time frame, he still attempted over 2,000 passes. Hill is in his fourth year and has attempted a whopping 18. 


Fanduel Freebie


This news is very dire to fantasy, especially on Fanduel. Taysom HIll is listed at the price tag of $4,500 this week, but not under the quarterback roster spot. Hill is listed as a tight end. Tight end is always a rather difficult roster spot, but we will save that for another day, as this weekend, we have the pleasure to roster a starting quarterback there. Hill may possibly be the highest owned player ever on an NFL Main Slate. Not only that, but his price point allows you to jam pack your lineup with whatever studs you feel like. How can this go wrong? Well let’s break it down.


I see two ranges of outcome, one of them being overlooked by many:


Outcome 1: Hill starts the game, and plays the entirety of it. He has a solid day through the air, maybe throws a touchdown, accumulates some yards on the ground as we see him do each week, and with the upside he has shown running, even rushes for a touchdown. At the conclusion of the slate, he is indeed, not only the highest owned player, but also the highest scoring tight end, and you without question need him in your lineup to have a chance at cashing. 


Outcome 2: He plays miserably. Throws for maybe 50 yards, turns the ball over once, the Falcons build a lead and he shows he cannot manufacture a drive. Gets benched for Winston and returns to his gadget player role where he gets a few snaps throughout the game where he runs the ball for four yards. Then at the conclusion of the slate, is without question the highest owned player, but odds are, you won’t be taking down any contests if you started him. 


Understanding a Path To Failure


A lot of DFS players always try to think of the best possible outcomes for the players they select without ever considering how players can fail. We all have experienced how what looks to be bulletproof chalk can fall through, so when you are looking at pieces of chalk, always consider the ‘what can go wrong?’. Hill is a rare case of chalk that has a ‘lesser path of failure’ being as cheap as he is at a position most people punt each week, so even if he busts, the majority of the field in cash and single entry tourney will also have ownership to him so this week it is more or less like rostering eight players opposed to nine.

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