ISAIAH SIMMONS IS A BUST

With the 2020 NFL Draft rapidly approaching in an unprecedented virtual format, there are bound to be mistakes made. Then there are mistakes that were planned long before Covid-19 crippled the nation. One such mistake would be taking Isaiah Simmons with a top ten selection.

Simmons, the hybrid linebacker/safety from Clemson University, is slated to be a lock as a top ten pick by pretty much every mock draft in the sports world. He is praised for his versatility to play multiple positions on the field, defend the run, and play in coverage. His athleticism, which is undeniably off of the charts, makes his “versatility” a hard point to argue on its face.

But let’s take a deeper look into his skill set…

FACTS AND OPINIONS

There are two aspects to Isaiah Simmons’ draft profile that simply cannot be argued against. Simmons is as sure a tackler as you will be able to find. He also is incredibly athletic which cannot be understated, as you cannot teach speed.

On the flip side of that coin however, it should also be noted that from a skill set perspective, he is incredibly raw. He does not play in coverage well at all, usually giving an enormous cushion to the player he is guarding on the rare instances that you will find him in man coverage. 

When you see him line up at cornerback or safety it is usually because his speed allows the defensive coordinator to be creative, rather than Simmons being so good that he can play anywhere. We will take a closer look at a great example of this later in the article.

As a pass rusher, which is where most of his highlight reel comes from, he lacks any actual pass rush moves and tends to be rag dolled when an offensive lineman manages to get their hands on him. His numbers come from free runs that are created by sending zero blitzes at his opponent. Most of his “highlights” come as a free rusher unblocked, or as a QB spy, which likely was created by the opponent beefing up their protection scheme.

Check out some of Isaiah Simmons’ highlight reel below. You should slow it down to see what is really happening on the play rather than just watch it in full speed and be impressed with the speed and hard hitting.

 

BUT HE HAD 3 INTERCEPTIONS AND 8 PASS DEFLECTIONS

In the 2019 season Simmons managed to compile three interceptions and eight break ups. These numbers are amazing at face value, even when compared against a top Safety prospect like Grant Delpit. Delpit had two interceptions and seven break ups in 2019. 

Again, at face value, that is an incredibly productive season. Was it really though? If you take the time to break down his interceptions, you will find that they really aren’t all that impressive. 

Two of the four were thrown directly at him while playing a QB spy or short underneath assignment. This is great obviously that he managed to catch the ball, but doesn’t support Simmons being good in coverage in the least. 

A third was again thrown right at him while playing a flat assignment. In fact if you slow this clip down, you will be able to see that he doesn’t even know that there is a receiver behind him as his head never leaves the QB. This is not intended to say that he was doing wrong by leaving his eyes on the QB at all. This was a horrible pass by the QB, and a right place, right time type of interception by Simmons.

While on the topic of right place, right time, let’s talk about his final career interception against Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl. This interception appears on every Isaiah Simmons highlight reel you will see. This ball was not thrown directly at him, but was thrown directly at the spot he was going to be.

Clemson ran a corner blitz with a cover two shell behind it. Before the snap it was disguised as cover three with the safety (Simmons) in the middle of the field. At the snap of the ball the cornerback rushed the QB, and he threw the ball deep down the sideline. Unfortunately for him, Simmons turned and sprinted to that sideline at the snap of the ball. This resulted in a perfect pass, hitting Isaiah Simmons directly in stride for an interception. This was a great exhibition of speed, and a great play call by the Clemson coordinator, but was in no way an exceptional coverage play by Simmons.

Finally as to the eight pass break ups. This is an inflated number due to the amount of batted balls he achieves as a free rusher and a QB spy lurking at the line of scrimmage. Getting his hands up for these deflections is a great play, but is it really relatable to coverage skills? If it was, surely we would see J.J. Watt or Nick Bosa on an island against RB’s and TE’s in coverage.

 

HE IS A GREAT LINEBACKER THOUGH FOR SURE

Isaiah Simmons had 104 tackles in 2019. You will get no argument here that Simmons is a great tackler. When he can manage to get his hands on the ball carrier that is. Unfortunately however, this only really occurs when he is unblocked.

In the instances where an offensive lineman, or even a TE can manage to locate and get their hands on him, you will almost never find him shedding that block and making a play on the ball carrier. He does seem to do fairly well scraping to the ball and playing clean up, but being anywhere near the point of attack is almost a sure win for the offense except in the instances where he is unblocked on the edge.

Simmons could be great as a weak side run defender that can scrape to the ball and hide behind stronger players that will eat blocks for him, but beyond that it might be a rough time for him in the NFL attempting to take on NFL caliber lineman regularly.

LOGIC MEANS NOTHING TO MOST

If you still doubt the things said in this breakdown please take a moment to go back and watch the National Championship game highlights and put an extra emphasis on paying attention to Isaiah Simmons. You will see that most of the game he is rushing the QB on zero blitzes, or playing as a spy on Burrow.

Take a look at where he is on the big plays made by Thaddeus Moss, the LSU tight end. Surely if he was as adept in coverage as sports media would like you to believe, he would be responsible for making sure the LSU tight end can’t bail them out and score two touchdowns in the most important game of the year right?

Once you verify that he was in fact no where in coverage for most of that game, please ask yourself one question and see if you can rationalize an answer…

WHY WOULD CLEMSON TAKE SUCH A VERSATILE PLAYER AND TURN HIM INTO SUCH A ONE TRICK PONY IN THE MOST IMPORTANT GAME OF THE SEASON?

 

DRAFT STOCK & NFL COMPARISON

Isaiah Simmons will be taken in top ten without a doubt. That doesn’t mean he should be however. His draft stock should reflect a third round grade, and it wouldn’t be wild for a team to grab him in the late second.

Simmons has an amazing ceiling, with all of the upside in the world due to his speed and athleticism. From a top ten pick however, you want to see immediate production, and short of being one hell of a gunner on special teams, it just isn’t likely in this writer’s opinion.

NFL COMPARISON: Barkevious Mingo 

The biggest benefit of Simmons comes from what a Defensive Coordinator can scheme into their system with his physical abilities, but you should fully expect that your team will feel the risk involved with playing a player that has no real ball skills in coverage on a regular basis. 

This article is probably going to upset some folks that are hoping their team drafts Simmons. That is unfortunate, but please feel free to take this time to comment below and tell us why you want your team to draft the biggest bust of the 2020 NFL draft!